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Next General Election

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ProfilePosted byOptionsPost Date

JohnLovesHorlicks

JohnLovesHorlicks Report 1 Dec 2012 15:02

Yes, very true Roy. They were praising the high turnout in Rotherham because of the UKIP/fostering row. But it was less than 40%.

Clegg is dead in the water. Cameron will not recover much imho. Perhaps 35% of popular vote. Only one person intends to vote Conservative here in the Valleys, and she is not allowed out. ;-)

Porkie_Pie

Porkie_Pie Report 30 Nov 2012 23:42

John, When times are hard and unpopular decisions have to be made by elections and large swings "protest votes" are to be expected,


But in the cold light of day in a General election more people tend to vote so you get a different outcome

Roy

Eldrick

Eldrick Report 30 Nov 2012 23:40

Whatever

JohnLovesHorlicks

JohnLovesHorlicks Report 30 Nov 2012 23:29

Roy. Exactly same where I live in the Valleys. But Corby was a Tory marginal and was won by Labour with 8,000 votes. And all 3 by elections yesterday were large swings.

Coalition deeply unpopular in traditional Labour areas. Not that popular in traditional Tory areas where I can see a lot of votes going to UKIP next time.

I have been pretty good at forecasting over the years and I feel the political map in England will be very different in General Election. Only thing that will save Coalition now is a war like the Falklands. But not too much money in the kitty for that sort of thing.

Am an absolutely dispassionate observer of English politics and always have been. Don't like any of the unionist parties very much - whether they contain Emlyn Hooson (who I liked a lot), George Thomas or Cheryl Gillan.

Porkie_Pie

Porkie_Pie Report 30 Nov 2012 23:13

Labour retain Rotherham and Middlesbrough Shock horror :-0

John, if you think these results represent a change in the mood or thought process of the voters then your deluding yourself,

These area's have always been predominant labour

The problem with the way people vote in places like Rotherham, Barnsley and Doncaster Which is the part of south yorkshire where I'm from is that as i believe Eldrick said on another thread about some voters being politically illiterate,

Most Vote labour because "dad always did" or because they think that Labour stands for the "working man" ye rite

I think they would get a shock if voting meant ticking boxes on policy's without the name of the party which the policies belong to

Roy

JohnLovesHorlicks

JohnLovesHorlicks Report 30 Nov 2012 22:46

"Atlantic Archipelago is increasingly favoured in academia, although British Isles is still commonly employed."

Oh well, I will have to go through every mention of British Isles I have ever made and replace it with Atlantic Archipelago. Might be easier to lose a knee cap :-(

Susan10146857

Susan10146857 Report 30 Nov 2012 21:02

If you go by that rule John.......The map of England when I was a child included your precious Wales......since growing up and maturing I now know for certain that Wales is not part of England.......You will be upsetting many Southern Irish by your remarks as to their so called Britishness.....so I suggest you rein it in before your loud speaking becomes more than a source of irritation.

Eldrick

Eldrick Report 30 Nov 2012 20:54

Whatever

JohnLovesHorlicks

JohnLovesHorlicks Report 30 Nov 2012 20:46

Cannot avoid the geographical truth that we are the British Isles on the map. What do the Irish call them? Irish Isles? It is the Irish Sea. Nobody in Wales complains about that.

Are all the Irish complaining that Wikipedia places them geographically within the British Isles?

Are all the New Zealanders complaining they are in Australasia. Are all the Canadians complaining they are in North America.

Geography and politics are quite separate - otherwise we would not have small islands all over the world split in two - Ireland, Cyprus, Haiti, Borneo, Ailsa Craig.

MrDaff

MrDaff Report 30 Nov 2012 20:34

Sigh .... gave up sucking eggs many years ago I'm afraid.
The word in apostrophe's was 'British', not a reflection on the various islands.
I challenge you to stand in Parnell Square and make any reference to the Republic being part of Britain LOL !!!

What flowers do you like ?

JohnLovesHorlicks

JohnLovesHorlicks Report 30 Nov 2012 20:21

Mr Daff You had me thinking, but Bristish Isles always included Eire when I was doing geography. And not that old :-D ;-)

From Wiki:

The British Isles are a group of islands off the northwest coast of continental Europe that include the islands of Great Britain, Ireland and over six thousand smaller isles. There are two sovereign states located on the islands: Ireland (sometimes called the Republic of Ireland) and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (commonly known as the United Kingdom).

The British Isles also include three dependencies of the British Crown: the Isle of Man and, by tradition, the Bailiwick of Jersey and the Bailiwick of Guernsey in the Channel Islands, although the latter are not physically a part of the archipelago

MrDaff

MrDaff Report 30 Nov 2012 20:14

JLC, don't think the RoI would appreciate being called part of the 'British' Isles....and as an independent Republic, don't recognise the Queen anyway, and are already suffering from membership of Europe.

Europe ? Poke it.

Devolution is not a solution, it's suicide.

JohnLovesHorlicks

JohnLovesHorlicks Report 30 Nov 2012 20:04

DET Isn't that questions about Scottish MP's voting for English only legislation what is known as the "West Lothian" question. That is what I thought.

My MP from the Rhondda (Chris Bryant) votes on English education issues in Westminster. His friend is Welsh Education Minister. And Michael Gove never missed a trick to have a "go" at Leighton Andrews and vice versa.

I see signs the Tories are starting to cosy up to UKIP. They will drop Cleggy like a stone soon.

+++DetEcTive+++

+++DetEcTive+++ Report 30 Nov 2012 19:41

There would have to be a few more steps before Westminster is an English Assembly. Under current Scottish proposals, the Westminster would still control a combined Armed Services, and would need to decide the devolved budget.

I wouldn’t mind so much if MPs representing Scotland, Wales and N Ireland didn’t vote on policies which ‘only’ effect England.

Back to the OP – unless the economic situation improves noticeable during the life time of the current Government, the Conservatives are likely to be voted out, in protest at the cuts effecting the public as much as anything else. I can’t see anyone else wanting to form a coalition with them.

JohnLovesHorlicks

JohnLovesHorlicks Report 30 Nov 2012 19:20

Do you think that wil come soon? Police elections were England & Wales, so if that "independence" in Scotland continues (however they vote in just over a year's time) the West Lothian question will be answered.

I can see Welsh MPs being sent to Westminster for a time after next election, but last two Welsh Secretaries (Cheryl "keep trains and roads off my land" Gillan and David somebody) have convinced me that Westminster is a negative factor in Welsh politics and a waste of money for both England and Wales.

At that point, Westminster will become an English Assembly. And all 5 Governments in British Isles (England, Ireland, Wales, Scotland and N Ireland) can decide whether to contribute to Europe as a full member and whether to recognise the Queen as Head of State or not

+++DetEcTive+++

+++DetEcTive+++ Report 30 Nov 2012 19:10

When is England going to get an elected Assembly of some sort? Everyone else in the Union has one. :-|

Eldrick

Eldrick Report 30 Nov 2012 18:31

Whatever.

JohnLovesHorlicks

JohnLovesHorlicks Report 30 Nov 2012 18:19

Eldrick Not sure who is thinking wishfully.

I couldn't care less who wins in England. I hope we in Wales are granted more law making powers. Labour get in here automatically. Only question will be whether Tories or Party for Wales (Plaid Cymru) come second. Welsh Libs and UKIP will scrap for fourth place. Tories cannot form a Coalition with Labour, and are less likely to find any common ground with Plaid, who are probably a bit left of Labour at moment.

Scotland may be Independent by then In any case, it will be a straight fight between Labour and SNP up there.

But England could change dramatically. Unless miracles happen, Tories will get trounced as they did in Corby. And in all 3 by elections last night. And I can see no way back for Lib Dems at all. And if there is an appetite for Ed Millipede to be Prime Minister, I have not yet seen it.

So watch this space. Wales, I believe, would be as keen on Europe as Ireland. If Farage was a key player in England, England would be less keen on Europe. ;-) Europe could split the Union wide apart.

Eldrick

Eldrick Report 30 Nov 2012 17:34

wishfull thinking!

I can't see another coalition, it will be a straight win one way or the other. This coalition had a thankless task with the total shambles they inherited. But milliband as pm? Lol. Somehow i dont think so.

Andrew

Andrew Report 30 Nov 2012 17:30

Mid term by elections are not a reliable guide to a General election. Turnout is always low and people can register a 'protest vote' knowing nothing will change. Votes will go back to the bigger parties just as they always do.

Andy