General Chat

The Office for National Statistics this morning released the latest UK growth figures (GDP), with some reports saying the economy is now back to pre-recession levels. This made me wonder if ordinary working people have benefited from the reported growth in the economy. Speaking for myself, since 2009 I have calculate that after increases in my rent, my council tax; my energy bills, to name but a few items, I am about £18/£20 a week worse off, have you benefited from the latest growth figures?

I have no doubt politicians of all persuasions will be sharing their views with us and that the government will say "their economic plan is working and they must stick to it" personally I think we have a boom economy with bust looming just round the corner.

As I have said before on other threads, the economy is unbalanced and any growth is being fuelled by rising house prices and increased personal debt. According to The Office for National Statistics, the only sector that has increased above the pre-crisis level of 2009 is the service sector - see note below.

I think the Chancellor, on hearing today's news, must have got down on his knees to pray that interest rates do not rise before the next election and turn his boom into bust.

Note - Source The Office for National Statistics:-

Although there has been widespread growth across all major components of GDP since the start of 2013, the service industries remain the largest and steadiest contributor to economic growth and the only component of GDP where output has exceeded its pre-downturn peak.

OFITG
When I heard that the chancellor was crowing yet again about this report I really wondered which planet he was living on.
I don't know anyone whose standard of living has improved and many are struggling.
:-( :-( :-(

Von - and to add the crowing, Nick Clegg is doing the rounds proclaiming triumphantly how the Liberal Democrats being in government saved the economy, every time I hear that man singing his own praises I cringe :-|

I dread the election in some ways having to listen to these people talking such rubbish
I fear things won't change and we will have more of this.

On another thread I've just said I'm an optimist but now I'm wondering :-S :-S :-S

Not sure who it was I heard speaking on tv yesterday, but they were pointing out that though London and SE is booming, the rest of the country is still struggling so any increase in interest rates would be disastrous ( I'm paraphrasing) .

Locally the town centre is seeing a lot of building, new Premier Inn, lots of cafes/food outlets, new library, new offices, new cinema etc.... I will be interested to see how they all do when finished. The council is Labour, I think they are doing a good job myself, of balancing services with the cuts, and encouraging investment generally.

Living standards for a large number of people, are nowhere near their pre-crisis levels of 2009, and probably won't recover to anywhere near that level for several years.

Also, there are growing pressures on prices, if the Bank of England is to meet its target on inflation interest rates will need to rise, many of the countries we trade with have depressed economies, the current increases in property prices are unsustainable as are rent levels, household debt continues to increase, and the government is nowhere near meeting their target for reducing the deficit.

When you put all that in the mixing bowl, the economy is far from stable, and I think that the government will hope that interest rates won't rise too much before the next general election, and that they will win another term in office, if they succeed I believe they will continue with their austerity measures :-(

Read the announcement carefully. Nowhere does it say that living standards have reached their 2008 levels.

What is says is that GDP, that is is the market value of all goods and services produced, is back to where it was.

Whilst generally speaking, living standards rise and fall in line with changes in GDP, they are not as closely interlinked as you might think as there are many other factors which affect living standards too. GDP may actually increase while real incomes for the majority decline, and vice versa.

There is an enormous amount of work out there. All I have to do is go out and find it.

I know this because Vinegar Tits at the Job Centre told me today!

Watched every 7 years - the programme about a group of children filmed every 7 years - they are now 56.

In the midst of her chat a lady sat at her laptop and said she had a medical and last week received notice that she is fit for work. She has rheumatoid arthritis - her left hand was a bit twisted but her right, it was bad.

What happened common sense? Did it disappear with ATOS?

To answer your question - the answer is no - OH has found out when in supermarket that an object on eye level shelf often is less value than the identical object on bottom shelf.

I always read the reports I receive from The Office for National Statistics carefully and I don't think I said in any of my posts that they, or I, said that living standards have reached their 2008 levels.

In respect of GDP, as I stated in my opening post, the service industries are the only component of GDP where output has exceeded its pre-downturn peak.

Gross Domestic Product Preliminary Estimate - Q2 2014t:-

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/gva/gross-domestic-product--preliminary-estimate/q2-2014/sum-gdp-preliminary-estimate--q2-2014.html

Oh Yeah and unemployment is down

Yes, most of those are now in Part Time work or Zero Hours Contracts

Big Deal
:-P

Well, 'normal' level Public Sector workers are worse of, but 'higher' grades appear to have had a rise.
I expect a lot of that imaginary growth may have to do with the Government throwing money at Academies and those recently set up 'private' schools that are funded by 'us', and take money away from state schools.

Going back o my post on 25 July 2014 @ 13:48 about putting all that in the mixing bowl, below are a few of the ingredients that were not included, when the Chancellor; the Prime Minister; the Deputy Prime Minister; and the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, took to the airwaves and the front page of the newspapers to announce the sweet taste of their recipe - had they added these it would have altered the taste somewhat:-

GDP per capita (GDP per capita is the economic output of a country by person) :-

The GDP per capita still remains very weak, so, If the population continues to grow at the rate it has been growing over recent years, GDP per capita would still be below where it was in 2008, it will probably take several years before it gets anywhere near the 2008 levels.

Economy is out of kilter - to many eggs in one basket:-

Any hopes that manufacturing and construction would create growth, have so far, not really materialised, meaning that the service sector is the only area that has seen any real growth, and that makes the economy like a patient with a dodgy heart having a faulty pacemaker.

Earnings:-

Normally in a recovery wages and and living standards tend to grow with the economy, however in the current recovery wages and and living standards are still lagging behind, for wages to get anywhere near their level in 2008, a substantial pay rise would be needed, and that is not going to happen any time soon as wages are still being squeezed.

Another factor affecting earnings is that of productivity per worker and per hour, both of these remain below 2008 levels, if this is not addressed wages and living standards will struggle to improve.

Massaged Unemployment Figures;-

Much in being made about unemployment falling to 6.5% and over a million new jobs being created since the current government came to power, little has been said about roughly two thirds of these being self-employed. There are questions about about the remaing third, such as what quality/types of jobs are these and how many are part-time and/or subject to zero hour contracts - due to the way the figures are calculated, the truth about the actual level of unemployment and under-employment, is not likely to be made public.

Household Debt:-

Household & personal debt is rising to levels not seen since before the recession, a large part of this results from people borrowing money to buy a house and using credit to make ends meet.

When interest rates rise, and they will, sooner than many probably expect, present forecasts vary between the end of this year and early next year. When that happens, people could start to worry about their personal finances, and decide to reign in their spending, that could, depending on other economic factors, send the economy back into recession.

In summary the UK is turning into a third world economy with a comfortable financial sector plugged into public and quasi public sector contracts while a rapidly growing unskilled low productivity group shouts and screams.

During the American Civil War the Tories were very strong supporters of the confederate side. Today life in Louisiana, the panhandle, S Carolina and Alabama is little changed. It is a model for modern Tories who have close if not very well known links to the Tea Party etc. It is felt that this is a successful economic model for the good 'ol boys.

"Back with my wife in Tennessee, when one day she said to me
"Virgil, quick, come see, there go the Robert E.Lee"
Now I don't mind I'm choppin' wood, and I don't care if the money's no good
Ya take what ya need and ya leave the rest
But they should never have taken the very best

The night they drove old Dixie down
And all the bells were ringing
The night they drove old Dixie down
And all the people were singing"

RolloTheRed - the opening paragraph in you post is an excellent summary of my main points ;-)