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Aka Shapps

ProfilePosted byOptionsPost Date

JoyLouise

JoyLouise Report 6 Oct 2017 07:00

Wonder which politicians would be foolish enough to get behind this guy?

What I've read about him makes me believe he can't be trusted to lie straight in bed and his general demeanour reminds me of T Blair.

Can't wait to hear the names of those lining up behind him - and wonder which one fancies his/her chances at replacing T May.



David

David Report 6 Oct 2017 08:58


IF she should be deposed and replaced, the chancellor looks a likely candidate.

The R Sole who presented himself in front of the PM with a P45 during a coughing fit
wants sorting out :-| :-|

Dermot

Dermot Report 6 Oct 2017 10:00

Ministers in high positions do not always owe their status to be the best individual for their job on the basis of ability.

Meanwhile, the general public experience on a day-to-day basis shootings; stabbings; muggings; suicides; poverty; depression; robberies; fear; repossessions; bankruptcies; homelessness; drug misuse and let us not overlook the dreaded P45.

Nevertheless, Mrs May could still survive a little longer.

RolloTheRed

RolloTheRed Report 6 Oct 2017 11:33

Ship of fools.

The Tories are already out of time on both brexit and any meaningful reversal of the "austerity" and regressive policies of the last ten years. Most of the population under 45 hate them.

Indeed all of the Tories (using the term advisedly) "most likely to" espouse applying failed ideas with increased vigour. It is all very reminiscent of the wrangling between Goering and Admiral Doenitz during the death throes of the Third Reich. Ruby Wax has recently made an excellent reminder of KrystalNacht and its outcomes.

Meanwhile loud noises off as Corbyn leads his Bolsheviks towards Socialism in One Country with only the Scots Nats between the UK and catastrophe. Post a failed brexit the SNP will once more head for the door.

Meanwhile Hammond is saving up for a navy he can afford, scouring the pages of eBay model kits. "Defence" is one of the items where May promised "strong and stable" co-operation in Florence. Are any of her promises good for more thah the day?

fools rush in

JoyLouise

JoyLouise Report 8 Oct 2017 14:05

AKA has gone very quiet, hasn't he?

supercrutch

supercrutch Report 8 Oct 2017 22:28

He needs to shut up and slide back under his own ego.

Mrs May has enough to contend with including press coverage which has been grossly biased against her and the ridiculous demands of the powers that be in Europe.

If she did resign I hope she is replaced with a PM who will tell the EU where to put their demands :-D

RolloTheRed

RolloTheRed Report 8 Oct 2017 22:57

The Tories , including T May, are contemplating various ways of rearranging the deckchairs. Despite the interest of the political press it is of little import as the SS Brexit is steaming full tilt into disaster all aboard trilling that there is no other way.

Red October?

Long ago I recall a Cummings cartoon of the Tory front bench dancing a conga each and every member stabbing the back of the man in front. No change there then. May only got the job as last man standing not on merit. About the only things we now know are that she is not up to it and cannot delegate.

don't panic

Dermot

Dermot Report 9 Oct 2017 07:30

Panic?

Some Theologians seem to be doubting if the Pope is Catholic.

Meanwhile, control & compromise will surely keep Mrs May in Downing Street for a tad longer. Maybe today she will say something new & exciting that persuades the listener(s) that there is some hope after all for the UK.

RolloTheRed

RolloTheRed Report 9 Oct 2017 08:13

Ian Duncan Smith enjoyed the "full confidence" of the party until a couple of weeks before he was dumped. Thatcher went off to Paris for a bit of handbagging practice and returned no longer PM. The Tory party are admirers of Robespierre.

May is not helped by current polling giving Labour a 5% lead over the Tories. She is helped even less by Corbyn's ratings overtaking her own.

The brexit talks are on the edge of collapse. May has taken over from Davis expecting somehow to browbeat the EU into submission supported by gritty Denmark. She will get nowhere leaving the UK facing the famous cliff edge.

Parliament has fewer than 100 hard line brexiters but a clear majority for some sort of soft brexit or even no brexit at all. If slow and stubborn cannot deliver then they will find somebody who can.

In case nobody here has noticed the £ is again in chopoy waters. It is making a nonsense of govt spending plans for defence and the NHS while most of Hammond's famous post brexit war chest has evaporated. UK inflation rises, incomes for the many fail to keep pace.

May is out of time. So much so that Barnier and co are hardly bothering to hide that their efforts are now directed towards the Labour party.

As to the Tory party. In its C20 format it is finished. Some kind of centre right party will rise from the ashes but not until it has dumped the Little Englanders.

JoyLouise

JoyLouise Report 9 Oct 2017 10:03

The trouble is, Rollo, there is no good example in recent times.

The breakaway party, SocDem, did not get very far, did it? In addition, I can't think of any obvious candidates who would be able to form a new party, slap down the dissenters, take on Brexit negotiations, inspire the electorate and generally keep all balls in the air. Can you?

I don't think it can be done at the moment, especially with almost half of the electorate seemingly wanting to ignore the fact that the majority (albeit small, but that's how our kind of democracy works) voted for Brexit.

Who would take on the task of trying to appease all? It can't be done ..... unless by someone who believes he/she is God's gift to our nation, ie a self-delusional, self-promoting sort.

Cue McDonnell, Corbyn and gang? I don't think so.

David

David Report 9 Oct 2017 10:15


PM Mrs Thatcher was taken apart in front of a full House of Commons

by the mildest of men. Left #10 in tears not long after.

RolloTheRed

RolloTheRed Report 9 Oct 2017 11:14

There won't be any new party. The Tories are already split in much the same way as they split after the Corn Laws Reform in 1840 ( and spent most of the C19 out of power).

It is the Redwood & Mogg tendency which will flounce off into the sunset quite likely taking brexit with them.

All that can really said about the current situation is that it is very volatile (hence the up and down state of the £), a near total stop on inward investment and large scale int. business dealing for UK assets, and that the Govt. are deeply split. May seems to be living in la la land showing no understanding of the implications of change of status to what the EU calls .a "third country".

The DUP coalition is dead. The MPs sit on the opposition benches drawing short money. They want Stormont restored and their mits on the £ 1.5bn, Bombadier supported and no hard border as the price for their support.

Consequently it is highly likely that within a few months (weeks) the government will not be able to get its business through the house. Either it will have to adapt - not May's forte - , rearrange the deck chairs or go to the country.

There are only two people who could take over from May without dire consequences (big run on sterling). They are Hammond and Clarke. Of course they have little support from the brexiters. Nevertheless it is the best bet. Hammond would likley keep the UK within the Single Market and Customs Union.

Another option is early elections. The Tories would be decimated but not so far as to give Corbyn a majority. Consequently a Corbyn led govt would have to make up the numbers with the SNP & LibDems whio would not vote for socialist nirvana nationalisation. They would go along with staying in both the Single Market and the Customs Union though.

If May / Davis chose to walk out of the brexit talks my feeling is that her time as PM would be counted in hours but maybe the joyful headlines n thepress might save her if not the country.

The brexit referendum was advisory not mandatory. Further under British const law, which bars parliaments from binding their successors, the brexit mandate no longer applies as May called a GE. Opinion changes over time. There is plenty of hard evidence that there is now a small but solid lead for the remain camp of about 52/48 and far higher with the under 45s. If the talks go on as badly as they have done and the many adverse consequences already present get worse then the government of the day will have little option but to considerably soften its stance eg by staying in the SM and CU or even calling another referendum. I think another UK referendum on anything anytime is wildly unlikely.

Of course ongoing SM/CU membership would come at the price of freedom of movement BUT Germany and France have indicated that they are amenable to tightening up the rules and this is likely to happen regardless of brexit.

Corbyn is a warrior in the same mould as, say, Tony Benn or (going back) Disraeli. He has neither the guile nor the talent to run a coalition government. However the Labour Party have plenty of people who could such as Hilary Benn and Keith Starmer. Unlike the Tories they also have a much more rounded upcoming generation.

In extremis the UK could go bust. Given the massive balance of payments deficit and the over borrowed private sector that is far from impossible. The price of €uro/IMF help back to life let alone health would be a severe Greek haircut. Elements such as adopting the €uro, a Troika from Brussels in Gt George St, and Schengen should go down a treat. Better than emoty supermarket shelves though.

All I can say is that the rush for the door, the shifting of large blocks of capital, is well under way.


JoyLouise

JoyLouise Report 9 Oct 2017 15:07

Of course there'll be no new party just as there's no new obvious potential leader at present.

If May sits tight through any possible difficulties in passing legislation in the coming half-year, she will have no need to go to the country. Let's hope she does not cave in as Whitlam did following his supply problem and the perceived collusion between Kerr and Fraser pants-down but instead looks to American examples.

Don't call a further election and allow the bu**ers no leeway ought to be her intention.

No matter who is PM there would be an outcry if any member went against the already-registered Brexit vote. It would be a huge mistake and a blot on democracy. Far better to knuckle down, carry it through then propose an alternative voting system - but not to make it compulsory as that would simply encourage donkey voting.

I believe that because someone believes Britain to be third rate, doesn't make it so. It's sour grapes from Europe, is my opinion.

I might add here that I have always been a swinging voter, not always voting in our region because it is sometimes futile and I did not support Brexit. However, I do believe that any kind of democratic government is better than an autocratic or despot-driven one, hence my feeling that we should go ahead. It goes against my grain to ignore a formal election result - it is simply wrong.

May is between a rock and a hard place and the behaviour of Corbyn et al demonstrates how little regard they have for their country and how much they have for self. Their constant harping is now becoming preposterous and it's about time they got in line to bring about Brexit in the best way possible, no matter the differences between parties. We are one nation.

Dermot

Dermot Report 9 Oct 2017 15:58

In my innocence, I always thought Ministers were expected to praise the PM & show God-like respect when questioned about their competence.

However, as soon as a damming report comes along that highlight's the PM's or any other Minister's inadequacies, they are manoeuvred towards the nearest exit.

Shockingly cruel, sometimes!

RolloTheRed

RolloTheRed Report 9 Oct 2017 17:57

For better or for worse it is not really in May's gift whether she should "sit tight" or not. If the government cannot get its business through the house then it has no option but to see a way around it which traditionally is a General Election.

Since Cameron's Five Year Parliament Act a GE now requires a 2/3 vote of consent in the Commons. If May chose to "sit tight" taking advantage of this she would just become not a lame duck but a dead duck. That is why Labour aquiesced to May's own request in June.

It has never been British custom to grant a prime minister at bay any quarter even in times of war (Chamberlain) or your own side (Major). It is a bit rich expecting such from Corbyn. The Commons is a bear bit, it was designed so.

May has proved adept at not painting herself into corners but to walling herself into a cave. It just is not going to fly.

As McMillan observed "Events" eventually overwhelm any PM. May, far less adept than most, is probably already well past her use by date.

The Leave side in the referendum actually claimed that leaving the Single Market was not expected. It has only got to the top of the list because of May's extreme antipathy to international systems of justice. However the ECJ is for the most part a commercial court, one in which British law firms make a great deal of money. May's run ins were all with the ECHR in Strasbourg, a British creation after ww2 and not part of the EU in any way. That she has the two confused is surprising.

In any case international trade without an international arbiter is impossible. May's hopes of trading with the EU without the ECJ are forlorn. As for the WTO US actions regarding Bombadier and veto of a deal dividing up the UK and EU agricultural quotas should give pause for thought.

The window for a successful brexit is closing fast and will for most purposes slam shut in March. The UK has as much chance of facing down the EU (or the USA ) as a mouse in the paws of a cat.

The conclusions are or should be pbvious.

The UK can thrive and prosper or the Tory party can carry on as usual but not both.

JoyLouise

JoyLouise Report 9 Oct 2017 20:31

The Leave side (who is among their number now?) can claim all it likes but anyone can be wise after the fact. Until a legal challenge has succeeded, the government must plough on even though May and others were not in favour of Brexit. Is it not rather telling that no one has succeeded in such a challenge so far?

Incidentally, even though I voted Remain, I am heartily sick of the over-governance endemic in European policy. We have enough here - too many Lords, too many MPs, County Councillors, Parish Councillors - without the many joining the Euro gravy train. Europe in no way portrays the requirement of openness of government which it ought to espouse as good governance.


Yes, the World Trade Organisation has been shown to be a fairly toothless entity by Trump. It is not the only global organisation that he is upsetting either.

He is steamrolling through his wishes but for how long? People will settle until something directly affects them but it seems that currently he is keeping the electorate's focus on external policies to avoid his problems at home, eg the health policy reforms he has been unable to push through. This kind of avoidance policy has long been part of presidential behaviour.

I have long thought that the world could become divided - Europe, Asian Pacific, Africa, the Americas - but that belief has been fractured by many occurrences, for example, Trump's actions have vetoed any 'Americas' . Can anyone display more ignorance of world affairs when the world needs to unite to fight terrorism?

Meanwhile and even closer to home for him, Trump may have to sack some of his family members who are losing his millions with their ineptitude in managing the businesses he had to pass on to them during his presidency. Never mind folks, they'll sharp cash in their P45s (or the US equivalent) when Trump gives them all government jobs.

Meanwhile Theresa is still sitting tight.

We live in interesting times as someone once said.

RolloTheRed

RolloTheRed Report 10 Oct 2017 09:27

What legal challenge are you talking about?
the s50 challenge that the executive could not invoke it without parliamentary assent succeeded.

Post S50 there are several eminent legal opinions that brexit is reversible, inc one by the guy who drafted it. May is sitting on a report from her law officers that it is reversible. There is no opposition to such a U turn among the 27 save the rebate would not be kept.

May's latest speech is such a farrago of nonsense that the Tories should consider her position and fast.

The UK does 65% of its visible and invisible trade either with the EU directly or under EU trade treaties. There are over 30 with the USA for instance. These will not be replaced in the blink of an eye as May imagines with her hypothetical parallel universe.

Only 6 Eu countries do more than 10% of their trade with the UK notably Germany (15%) and Ireland. Nearly all large scale UK business is foreign owned. The no.1 factor in their UK operations is EU membership or failing that something like the Norway deal. A no deal and they would be gone (are going) leaving a veritable wasteland.

That would of course suit Corbyn just fine giving him space and justification for his Marxist project which would put parliament firmly under the thumb of the NEC.

Only idiots and charlatans can believe the nonsense of Fox , Johnson, Gove, Davis Mogg and so on.

There will be blood.

JoyLouise

JoyLouise Report 10 Oct 2017 14:06

The kind of legal challenge that stops Brexit in its tracks and everything is disbanded so we see and hear no more about it, Rollo. I was aware of S50 but reversal is not cessation. TM may be allowing minds to run riot regarding a dire outcome of Brexit in the hope of the electorate instigating a further vote itself on Brexit.

Whatever the eventual outcome, at the moment government is obliged to carry on with the task in hand.

Like you, if Brexit goes ahead I have always believed our manufacturing industry will suffer as Europe introduces duty on British-made products and a natural reaction from business leaders would be to shift production, resulting in high unemployment levels here.

That, including the fact that we have lost the ability to produce items such as clothing due to cheaper overseas production and the sale of our manufacturing equipment to overseas producers does not bode well.

It is my belief that we are on a rocky road but my fervent hope is that we begin to train more engineers - in the old way, through university-funded engineering degrees, Dip Tech engineering and apprenticeships before we reduced the length of our apprenticeship schemes to fall in line with Europe (can you recall that era?). We need them to create our production machinery before we can even start on the manufacturing route again. Without them, in the words of one well-known character, I feel 'we're doomed.'

All said, I constantly ask how long before everything becomes extremely expensive in Britain, in the same way that much of Asia asked of itself before it industrialised and produced its own steel, ships, footwear, clothing, electrical goods, cars, etc for export. It got a march on us pretty quickly because everything was cheaper from them but our creative ability has suffered. Combine the Asia effect with the Europe effect and it won't be long before the price of goods has become exorbitant for us as they have us over a barrel. We are staring oblivion in the face unless we shake our tail feathers.

So ..... I hope that May and co are treading water while they gather enough evidence to convince the electorate that we would be better 'in' ..... but I am not holding my breath.

In addition, I don't think anyone can produce any different outcomes from her at the moment - indeed, who would want to try simply to end up in the same position.

If (and it's a big if) Corbyn got in with his policies, I believe the electorate would soon be rapidly disillusioned. His policies are not all bad but to carry forward with some of the items would probably result in massively disgruntled taxpayer and business-leader sectors and very likely Corbyn's swift demise unless he waters down some of his policies. There'll be the devil and McDonnell to pay if he goes down that route.